Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds8
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints33
- Kelly OlynykAssists7
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–124
- Q45.0Walker Kessler defensive rebound117–124
- Q46.1Josh Giddey misses 14-foot two point shot117–124
- Q415.1Josh Giddey enters the game for Aaron Wiggins117–124
- Q415.1Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Collin Sexton117–124
- Q415.1Thunder Full timeout117–124
- Q415.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2117–124
- Q415.1Walker Kessler enters the game for Simone Fontecchio117–123
- Q415.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2117–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:46Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 108 – 109 UTAH · OKC 29% → 44% +16OKC 29% → 44%+16 pts
- Q44:19Keyonte George makes 28-foot three pointerOKC 110 – 112 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 64% +20UTAH 43% → 64%+20 pts
- Q43:54Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 113 – 112 UTAH · OKC 36% → 57% +22OKC 36% → 57%+22 pts
- Q43:27Walker Kessler makes 1-foot dunk (Kris Dunn assists)OKC 113 – 114 UTAH · UTAH 42% → 58% +15UTAH 42% → 58%+15 pts
- Q42:45Keyonte George makes 24-foot three pointer (Lauri Markkanen assists)OKC 113 – 117 UTAH · UTAH 59% → 81% +22UTAH 59% → 81%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1
- UTAH 46%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -101
- OKC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 120.8 – 120.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +72 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +28 Elo | OKC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 117.711th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 119.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.0 | Margin | −2.022nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 114.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 116.424th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 16–79th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 2–0 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.