Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints25
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds12
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Maxi KleberRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–146
- Q45.0Lindy Waters III makes 24-foot step back jumpshot111–146
- Q415.1Lindy Waters III defensive rebound108–146
- Q418.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 25-foot jump bank shot108–146
- Q439.0Olivier Sarr makes free throw 1 of 1108–146
- Q439.0A.J. Lawson shooting foul107–146
- Q439.0Olivier Sarr makes two point shot107–146
- Q439.0Olivier Sarr offensive rebound105–146
- Q439.2Ousmane Dieng misses driving floating jump shot105–146
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:11Maxi Kleber makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)OKC 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 47% → 54% +6DAL 47% → 54%+6 pts
- Q110:35Luka Doncic makes 27-foot step back jumpshotOKC 2 – 6 DAL · DAL 50% → 56% +6DAL 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q19:48Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point jumperOKC 2 – 9 DAL · DAL 56% → 62% +6DAL 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q26:46Jalen Williams makes 24-foot three pointer (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 47 – 56 DAL · OKC 23% → 30% +6OKC 23% → 30%+6 pts
- Q25:44Aaron Wiggins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 52 – 56 DAL · OKC 34% → 42% +8OKC 34% → 42%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2
- OKC 58%
- Fair odds
- OKC -111
- DAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 120.1 – 119.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +64 | +35 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +56 Elo | OKC 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 118.310th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 118.122nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.7 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 116.112th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 115.822nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.98th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 14–1320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.