Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints28
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds17
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints36
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Jonathan IsaacRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game108–114
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime108–114
- OT6.1Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2108–114
- OT6.1Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2108–113
- OT6.1Coby White personal foul108–112
- OT6.2Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound108–112
- OT8.1DeMar DeRozan misses driving dunk108–112
- OT16.0Jalen Suggs enters the game for Cole Anthony108–112
- OT16.0Bulls Full timeout108–112
- OT16.0Goga Bitadze makes free throw 2 of 2108–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:01Franz Wagner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)CHI 94 – 95 ORL · ORL 41% → 58% +17ORL 41% → 58%+17 pts
- Q42:33Nikola Vucevic makes 2-foot dunk (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 96 – 97 ORL · CHI 24% → 40% +16CHI 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q42:06Goga Bitadze makes alley oop layup (Franz Wagner assists)CHI 96 – 99 ORL · ORL 61% → 78% +17ORL 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q445.2DeMar DeRozan makes driving layupCHI 100 – 101 ORL · CHI 10% → 33% +23CHI 10% → 33%+23 pts
- Q445.2DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 1CHI 101 – 101 ORL · CHI 33% → 49% +16CHI 33% → 49%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2
- ORL 58%
- Fair odds
- ORL -132
- CHI +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 108.6 – 110.8 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +13 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +56 Elo | ORL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 111.525th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 110.85th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.717th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 16–68th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.