San Antonio Spurs at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints30
- Blake WesleyAssists7
- Devin VassellRebounds5
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints34
- Franz WagnerAssists7
- Franz WagnerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–127
- Q418.0shot clock turnover111–127
- Q443.0Keldon Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)111–127
- Q451.2Caleb Houstan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)108–127
- Q41:04Zach Collins makes 2-foot layup (Malaki Branham assists)108–124
- Q41:20Chuma Okeke turnover106–124
- Q41:20Chuma Okeke offensive foul106–124
- Q41:31Julian Champagnie kicked ball violation106–124
- Q41:46Zach Collins makes free throw 2 of 2106–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:01Blake Wesley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 15 – 19 ORL · SA 16% → 20% +5SA 16% → 20%+5 pts
- Q17.1Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three pointerSA 20 – 20 ORL · SA 23% → 28% +6SA 23% → 28%+6 pts
- Q10.1Joe Ingles makes 28-foot three pointerSA 20 – 23 ORL · ORL 72% → 77% +6ORL 72% → 77%+6 pts
- Q210:09Cedi Osman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 25 – 25 ORL · SA 23% → 29% +6SA 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q24:28Jeremy Sochan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)SA 40 – 42 ORL · SA 20% → 26% +6SA 20% → 26%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -8
- ORL 79%
- Fair odds
- ORL -294
- SA +294 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 107.8 – 116.0 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | +2 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +227 Elo | ORL 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 74.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 111.226th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 110.87th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.6 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 110.624th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.020th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 15–68th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.