Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints18
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–95
- Q423.0shot clock turnover119–95
- Q446.0Garrett Temple bad pass (Dean Wade steals)119–95
- Q41:05Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound119–95
- Q41:07Isaac Okoro misses two point shot119–95
- Q41:13Jalen McDaniels bad pass (Isaac Okoro steals)119–95
- Q41:20Jalen McDaniels defensive rebound119–95
- Q41:23Isaac Okoro misses 27-foot three point jumper119–95
- Q41:32Georges Niang defensive rebound119–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:20Scottie Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)CLE 6 – 7 TOR · TOR 17% → 22% +4TOR 17% → 22%+4 pts
- Q18:09Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 9 – 7 TOR · CLE 78% → 83% +4CLE 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q16:38Gary Trent Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)CLE 13 – 14 TOR · TOR 18% → 22% +5TOR 18% → 22%+5 pts
- Q14:47Max Strus makes 25-foot three point shot (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 16 – 16 TOR · CLE 74% → 79% +5CLE 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q11:41Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)CLE 22 – 19 TOR · TOR 13% → 17% +4TOR 13% → 17%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -12
- CLE 87%
- Fair odds
- CLE -420
- TOR +420 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 119.1 – 108.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +98 | −20 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +330 Elo | CLE 87.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 80.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 80.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 114.319th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 117.519th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.5 | Margin | −3.224th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 112.919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 116.123rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.9 | Pace | 100.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–8 | Road vs home | 11–1323rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.