Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints32
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds15
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Caris LeVertAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–108
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound105–108
- Q40.0Coby White misses 28-foot three point jumper105–108
- Q44.1Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Andre Drummond105–108
- Q44.1Coby White enters the game for Torrey Craig105–108
- Q44.1Max Strus enters the game for Donovan Mitchell105–108
- Q44.1Bulls Full timeout105–108
- Q44.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2105–108
- Q44.1Andre Drummond enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu105–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:49Evan Mobley makes 9-foot two point shot (Isaac Okoro assists)CHI 97 – 98 CLE · CLE 48% → 64% +17CLE 48% → 64%+17 pts
- Q41:14Darius Garland makes 26-foot step back jumpshotCHI 100 – 103 CLE · CLE 54% → 86% +32CLE 54% → 86%+32 pts
- Q41:03Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 103 – 103 CLE · CHI 13% → 46% +34CHI 13% → 46%+34 pts
- Q443.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 1CHI 103 – 104 CLE · CLE 53% → 69% +16CLE 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q411.0Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2CHI 103 – 105 CLE · CLE 81% → 96% +15CLE 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9
- CLE 81%
- Fair odds
- CLE -280
- CHI +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 107.0 – 114.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +104 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +247 Elo | CLE 80.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 115.015th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 109.32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +5.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.715th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 109.02nd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 17–912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.