Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints29
- Ayo DosunmuAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists14
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–126
- Q411.1Torrey Craig defensive rebound136–126
- Q414.1Trae Young misses 29-foot step back jumpshot136–126
- Q418.1Torrey Craig makes free throw 2 of 2136–126
- Q418.1Bulls offensive team rebound135–126
- Q418.1Torrey Craig misses free throw 1 of 2135–126
- Q418.1Dejounte Murray personal take foul135–126
- Q420.0Torrey Craig defensive rebound135–126
- Q423.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 26-foot three point jumper135–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:37Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 102 – 96 ATL · CHI 63% → 75% +12CHI 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q48:21Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)CHI 106 – 103 ATL · ATL 23% → 35% +13ATL 23% → 35%+13 pts
- Q47:18Coby White makes 7-foot pullup jump shotCHI 110 – 107 ATL · CHI 55% → 66% +10CHI 55% → 66%+10 pts
- Q46:21Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Dejounte Murray assists)CHI 112 – 111 ATL · ATL 28% → 44% +16ATL 28% → 44%+16 pts
- Q46:00Torrey Craig makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 115 – 111 ATL · CHI 56% → 72% +16CHI 56% → 72%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- CHI 53%
- Fair odds
- CHI -101
- ATL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 120.3 – 120.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +13 | CHI: Missing Alex Caruso −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Clint Capela −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +18 Elo | CHI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 121.73rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 123.729th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.3 | Margin | −2.022nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 116.68th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 118.628th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.7 | Pace | 103.63rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 13–1422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+31 Elo- Alex Caruso injury/illness−1 Elo
Hawks
+13 Elo- Clint Capela injury/illness−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.