Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Buddy HieldPoints24
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Paul ReedRebounds8
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints36
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–121
- Q40.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound123–121
- Q40.0Darius Garland misses 22-foot three point jumper123–121
- Q41.0Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound123–121
- Q41.0Paul Reed blocks Donovan Mitchell's driving layup123–121
- Q46.2Darius Garland enters the game for Evan Mobley123–121
- Q46.2Cavaliers Full timeout123–121
- Q46.2Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2123–121
- Q46.2Ricky Council IV enters the game for Cameron Payne122–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:00Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 109 – 104 CLE · PHI 51% → 70% +18PHI 51% → 70%+18 pts
- Q414.0Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)PHI 120 – 119 CLE · CLE <1% → 25% +25CLE <1% → 25%+25 pts
- Q410.0Ricky Council IV makes free throw 1 of 2PHI 121 – 119 CLE · PHI 80% → 96% +16PHI 80% → 96%+16 pts
- Q49.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2PHI 122 – 121 CLE · CLE 3% → 19% +15CLE 3% → 19%+15 pts
- Q46.2Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2PHI 123 – 121 CLE · PHI 86% → 99% +13PHI 86% → 99%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -13
- CLE 89%
- Fair odds
- CLE -449
- PHI +449 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 106.2 – 117.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | +105 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +362 Elo | CLE 88.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 114.916th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 109.02nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +5.95th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 114.516th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 108.62nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.8 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 17–810th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.