Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Ricky Council IVRebounds10
Wizards- Tyus JonesPoints25
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Deni AvdijaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–113
- Q42.1Kyle Kuzma makes driving layup119–113
- Q46.2Jordan Poole enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly119–111
- Q46.2Wizards Full timeout119–111
- Q46.2Buddy Hield makes free throw 2 of 2119–111
- Q46.276ers offensive team rebound118–111
- Q46.2Buddy Hield misses free throw 1 of 2118–111
- Q46.2Landry Shamet personal foul118–111
- Q48.076ers offensive team rebound118–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:05Corey Kispert makes 23-foot three point shot (Jordan Poole assists)PHI 100 – 98 WSH · WSH 21% → 36% +15WSH 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q45:12Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot dunkPHI 102 – 98 WSH · PHI 65% → 76% +11PHI 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q44:31Ricky Council IV makes layupPHI 104 – 98 WSH · PHI 77% → 86% +9PHI 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q43:15Kyle Kuzma makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotPHI 106 – 102 WSH · WSH 11% → 20% +9WSH 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q42:51Buddy Hield makes 21-foot step back jumpshot (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 108 – 102 WSH · PHI 82% → 91% +9PHI 82% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -137
- WSH +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 119.0 – 116.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1371 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | −26 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +57 Elo | PHI 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 114.817th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 124.030th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −9.229th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 109.726th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 118.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.7 | Pace | 104.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 3–2230th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.