New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Bojan BogdanovicPoints22
- Jalen BrunsonAssists12
- Josh HartRebounds12
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints35
- Buddy HieldAssists6
- KJ MartinRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–96
- Q421.0DaQuan Jeffries enters the game for Jalen Brunson110–96
- Q421.0Jacob Toppin enters the game for Josh Hart110–96
- Q422.0shot clock turnover110–96
- Q444.2Darius Bazley bad pass (Donte DiVincenzo steals)110–96
- Q41:02Josh Hart makes 4-foot two point shot110–96
- Q41:14KJ Martin makes alley oop dunk shot (Ricky Council IV assists)108–96
- Q41:21Ricky Council IV defensive rebound108–94
- Q41:23Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 2 of 2108–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:23Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointerNY 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 41% → 47% +6PHI 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q110:21Josh Hart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 5 – 3 PHI · NY 53% → 59% +6NY 53% → 59%+6 pts
- Q410:08Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)NY 91 – 84 PHI · PHI 12% → 20% +8PHI 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q48:52Kelly Oubre Jr. makes two point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)NY 92 – 86 PHI · PHI 15% → 22% +6PHI 15% → 22%+6 pts
- Q48:29Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three pointer (Miles McBride assists)NY 95 – 86 PHI · NY 79% → 88% +9NY 79% → 88%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 65%
- Fair odds
- NY -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 113.1 – 111.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | −46 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +105 Elo | NY 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 118.39th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 113.914th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +4.47th of 30 |
| 10th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 116.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.611th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 100.714th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 17–1116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.