Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints23
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints30
- Buddy HieldAssists10
- Paul ReedRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–104
- Q41.0KJ Martin lost ball turnover (Caleb Martin steals)109–104
- Q47.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2109–104
- Q47.1Caleb Martin enters the game for Duncan Robinson108–104
- Q47.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2108–104
- Q47.1Buddy Hield personal foul107–104
- Q48.0Bam Adebayo offensive rebound107–104
- Q412.1Tyler Herro misses 21-foot pullup jump shot107–104
- Q428.1Heat Full timeout107–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:47Ricky Council IV makes 26-foot three pointer (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIA 79 – 80 PHI · PHI 46% → 58% +12PHI 46% → 58%+12 pts
- Q411:21Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)MIA 83 – 85 PHI · PHI 49% → 62% +13PHI 49% → 62%+13 pts
- Q47:13Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 92 – 91 PHI · MIA 37% → 52% +16MIA 37% → 52%+16 pts
- Q46:17Buddy Hield makes 14-foot pullup jump shotMIA 94 – 93 PHI · PHI 36% → 47% +11PHI 36% → 47%+11 pts
- Q45:39Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 97 – 93 PHI · MIA 53% → 71% +17MIA 53% → 71%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.6 – 111.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | −43 | MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 118.69th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 114.014th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 117.26th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 100.713th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 17–1013th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.