Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Damian LillardAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Kyle AndersonAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–107
- Q40.1Damian Lillard defensive rebound112–107
- Q42.1Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot112–107
- Q49.0Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Kyle Anderson112–107
- Q49.0Timberwolves Full timeout112–107
- Q410.1Damian Lillard makes 21-foot step back jumpshot112–107
- Q432.0Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)110–107
- Q435.1Kyle Anderson enters the game for Jaden McDaniels110–104
- Q435.1Timberwolves Full timeout110–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:47Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 67 – 66 MIN · MIL 31% → 41% +10MIL 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q35:18Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 70 – 68 MIN · MIL 34% → 44% +10MIL 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q34:37Damian Lillard makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jae Crowder assists)MIL 74 – 68 MIN · MIL 48% → 59% +11MIL 48% → 59%+11 pts
- Q44:57Karl-Anthony Towns makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIL 98 – 92 MIN · MIN 10% → 21% +11MIN 10% → 21%+11 pts
- Q41:58Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotMIL 105 – 101 MIN · MIN 4% → 18% +13MIN 4% → 18%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7.5
- MIN 77%
- Fair odds
- MIN -232
- MIL +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.0 – 117.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +53 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +210 Elo | MIN 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.0 | Points scored | 114.020th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 106.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +7.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 114.217th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 106.91st of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.1 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 19–54th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.