Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints41
- Kyle AndersonAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints22
- Scoot HendersonAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–109
- Q414.1Ibou Badji makes free throw 2 of 2121–109
- Q414.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound121–108
- Q414.1Ibou Badji misses free throw 1 of 2121–108
- Q414.1Luka Garza loose ball foul121–108
- Q414.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound121–108
- Q415.0Dalano Banton misses free throw 2 of 2121–108
- Q415.0Dalano Banton makes free throw 1 of 2121–108
- Q415.0Jordan McLaughlin personal foul121–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:01Jerami Grant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MIN 73 – 73 POR · POR 30% → 40% +10POR 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q318.1Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MIN 84 – 83 POR · POR 26% → 37% +11POR 26% → 37%+11 pts
- Q410:07Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 89 – 86 POR · MIN 58% → 71% +13MIN 58% → 71%+13 pts
- Q48:28Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 94 – 88 POR · MIN 71% → 82% +11MIN 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q47:39Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 97 – 90 POR · MIN 76% → 86% +10MIN 76% → 86%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8
- MIN 79%
- Fair odds
- MIN -206
- POR +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 110.4 – 104.9 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +48 | −33 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +227 Elo | MIN 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.6 | Points scored | 108.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 116.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.6 | Margin | −8.226th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 107.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.625th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 9–1525th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 POR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.