Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints24
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints18
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–100
- Q40.1shot clock turnover121–100
- Q421.2Josh Minott defensive rebound121–100
- Q424.1Brandon Boston Jr. misses 26-foot step back jumpshot121–100
- Q434.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point shot (Monte Morris assists)121–100
- Q438.2Kobe Brown lost ball turnover (Monte Morris steals)118–100
- Q451.0Daishen Nix makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)118–100
- Q41:05Jordan Miller makes driving dunk115–100
- Q41:10Jordan Miller defensive rebound115–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:38Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 35 – 27 LAC · MIN 48% → 60% +12MIN 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q28:56Mason Plumlee makes 1-foot dunk (Russell Westbrook assists)MIN 35 – 33 LAC · LAC 44% → 54% +10LAC 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q37:23Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumperMIN 62 – 62 LAC · LAC 47% → 57% +10LAC 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q34:56Russell Westbrook makes 22-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)MIN 70 – 69 LAC · LAC 43% → 53% +10LAC 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q33:27Kyle Anderson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 77 – 69 LAC · MIN 62% → 72% +10MIN 62% → 72%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3.5
- LAC 63%
- Fair odds
- LAC -156
- MIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.7 – 113.1 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1625 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +75 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +94 Elo | LAC 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.4 | Points scored | 118.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Points allowed | 112.39th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.3 | Margin | +6.14th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 118.52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 112.411th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 20–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.