Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds18
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints33
- James HardenAssists8
- James HardenRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–112
- Q416.1Jalen Duren bad pass (Paul George steals)106–112
- Q418.0Pistons Full timeout106–112
- Q418.0Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2106–112
- Q418.0Clippers offensive team rebound106–111
- Q418.0Russell Westbrook misses free throw 1 of 2106–111
- Q418.0Jaden Ivey personal take foul106–111
- Q419.1Cade Cunningham makes two point shot106–111
- Q426.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 2104–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:04James Harden makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDET 72 – 65 LAC · LAC 36% → 46% +10LAC 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q32:51Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three pointerDET 77 – 70 LAC · LAC 33% → 44% +11LAC 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q410:32Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumperDET 85 – 81 LAC · LAC 36% → 49% +13LAC 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q49:43Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Troy Brown Jr. assists)DET 88 – 83 LAC · DET 43% → 57% +14DET 43% → 57%+14 pts
- Q47:14Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DET 92 – 94 LAC · LAC 59% → 73% +15LAC 59% → 73%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -12.5
- LAC 88%
- Fair odds
- LAC -455
- DET +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.0 – 125.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +82 | DET: Missing Jared Rhoden −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +352 Elo | LAC 88.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 81.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 82.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.3 | Points scored | 118.59th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 112.48th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +6.14th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 118.82nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.0 | Defense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.625th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 304–20 | Road vs home | 19–53rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+17 Elo- Jared Rhoden sprained left ankle−4 Elo
Clippers
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.