Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints34
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints20
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Toumani CamaraRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–91
- Q415.1Josh Minott defensive rebound128–91
- Q417.1Dalano Banton misses two point shot128–91
- Q422.0Justin Minaya defensive rebound128–91
- Q426.0Daishen Nix misses 25-foot three point shot128–91
- Q428.1Josh Minott defensive rebound128–91
- Q430.1Kris Murray misses driving floating jump shot128–91
- Q441.0Daishen Nix makes 7-foot two point shot128–91
- Q41:01Dalano Banton makes free throw 2 of 2126–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43Toumani Camara makes driving layup (Anfernee Simons assists)MIN 0 – 2 POR · POR 27% → 30% +4POR 27% → 30%+4 pts
- Q111:25Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot dunk (Mike Conley assists)MIN 2 – 2 POR · MIN 69% → 73% +4MIN 69% → 73%+4 pts
- Q110:41Toumani Camara makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)MIN 5 – 5 POR · POR 22% → 27% +5POR 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q110:17Mike Conley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 8 – 5 POR · MIN 73% → 78% +5MIN 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q17:45Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 18 – 7 POR · MIN 85% → 88% +4MIN 85% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10
- MIN 83%
- Fair odds
- MIN -273
- POR +273 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.0 – 104.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1625 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −33 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +277 Elo | MIN 83.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 108.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 116.517th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.7 | Margin | −8.326th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 107.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.623rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 9–1625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.