Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints24
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints21
- Vasilije MicicAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–99
- Q413.0Patrick Beverley defensive rebound111–99
- Q416.1Miles Bridges misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot111–99
- Q420.0Miles Bridges defensive rebound111–99
- Q422.1Patrick Beverley misses driving layup111–99
- Q443.1Pat Connaughton defensive rebound111–99
- Q446.1Grant Williams misses 22-foot three point jumper111–99
- Q455.2Patrick Beverley makes 9-foot two point shot111–99
- Q41:18Davis Bertans makes 28-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)109–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)MIL 3 – 0 CHA · MIL 64% → 70% +6MIL 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q19:49Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 8 – 0 CHA · MIL 73% → 78% +5MIL 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q11:29Grant Williams makes 28-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)MIL 28 – 22 CHA · CHA 20% → 25% +5CHA 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q125.1Patrick Beverley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 35 – 25 CHA · MIL 77% → 82% +5MIL 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q29:15Brandon Miller makes driving layupMIL 40 – 35 CHA · CHA 21% → 27% +6CHA 21% → 27%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 73%
- Fair odds
- MIL -181
- CHA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 114.4 – 109.9 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −26 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone and CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +169 Elo | MIL 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.8 | Points scored | 107.728th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 118.224th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −10.530th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 107.728th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 118.229th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.8 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 8–2126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–0 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.