Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints21
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints26
- Tre MannAssists6
- Grant WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–122
- Q46.2shot clock turnover99–122
- Q430.2Bruno Fernando makes free throw 2 of 299–122
- Q430.2Bruno Fernando makes free throw 1 of 298–122
- Q430.2JT Thor shooting foul97–122
- Q440.1Nick Smith Jr. bad pass (Garrison Mathews steals)97–122
- Q452.0Kobe Bufkin out of bounds bad pass turnover97–122
- Q459.1Bruno Fernando defensive rebound97–122
- Q41:02Vasilije Micic misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot97–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:10Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 46 – 46 CHA · ATL 48% → 56% +8ATL 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q22:19Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cody Martin assists)ATL 50 – 56 CHA · CHA 52% → 60% +8CHA 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q34:27Seth Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)ATL 70 – 81 CHA · CHA 72% → 80% +8CHA 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q34:13Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three pointer (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 73 – 81 CHA · ATL 19% → 28% +8ATL 19% → 28%+8 pts
- Q32:39De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 78 – 85 CHA · ATL 20% → 29% +9ATL 20% → 29%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -3.5
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- CHA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 121.0 – 118.4 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1341 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −38 | ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +102 Elo | ATL 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.7 | Points scored | 108.428th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 119.824th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.2 | Margin | −11.430th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 108.227th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 119.530th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.5 | Pace | 99.821st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 7–2126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+4 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu left toe−3 Elo
Hornets
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.