Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds6
Hornets- Grant WilliamsPoints21
- Miles BridgesAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–111
- Q44.1shot clock turnover102–111
- Q425.2Brandon Miller defensive rebound102–111
- Q429.1Grant Williams blocks Tyrese Haliburton 's 26-foot step back jumpshot102–111
- Q438.0Grant Williams makes free throw 2 of 2102–111
- Q438.0Grant Williams makes free throw 1 of 2102–110
- Q438.0Aaron Nesmith personal foul102–109
- Q438.1Aaron Nesmith makes 2-foot driving dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)102–109
- Q442.1Pacers Full timeout100–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:16Seth Curry makes 25-foot three point shot (Miles Bridges assists)IND 80 – 79 CHA · CHA 25% → 35% +10CHA 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q47:47Tre Mann makes 1-foot two point shotIND 88 – 90 CHA · CHA 41% → 52% +10CHA 41% → 52%+10 pts
- Q47:05Seth Curry makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Nick Richards assists)IND 88 – 92 CHA · CHA 53% → 63% +11CHA 53% → 63%+11 pts
- Q44:24Aaron Nesmith makes 1-foot dunkIND 95 – 98 CHA · IND 24% → 36% +12IND 24% → 36%+12 pts
- Q44:05Miles Bridges makes driving layupIND 95 – 100 CHA · CHA 65% → 77% +12CHA 65% → 77%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -9
- IND 81%
- Fair odds
- IND -239
- CHA +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 122.0 – 115.3 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1322 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −48 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +249 Elo | IND 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.8 | Points scored | 108.328th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 120.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −11.830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.6 | Offense rating | 108.127th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 119.930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.4 | Pace | 99.821st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 14th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 6–2126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–1 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.