Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints26
- Vasilije MicicAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds14
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints21
- Lauri MarkkanenAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–107
- Q44.0Miles Bridges defensive rebound115–107
- Q47.1Lauri Markkanen misses 26-foot three point jumper115–107
- Q413.0John Collins defensive rebound115–107
- Q414.1Vasilije Micic misses free throw 2 of 2115–107
- Q414.1Hornets offensive team rebound115–107
- Q414.1Vasilije Micic misses free throw 1 of 2115–107
- Q414.1John Collins personal take foul115–107
- Q428.1Cody Martin defensive rebound115–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:07Taylor Hendricks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)CHA 79 – 80 UTAH · UTAH 54% → 65% +11UTAH 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q47:51Davis Bertans makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 95 – 94 UTAH · CHA 32% → 47% +15CHA 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q47:25Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)CHA 98 – 94 UTAH · CHA 47% → 63% +16CHA 47% → 63%+16 pts
- Q44:42Grant Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 105 – 96 UTAH · CHA 80% → 91% +11CHA 80% → 91%+11 pts
- Q44:30Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)CHA 105 – 99 UTAH · UTAH 9% → 19% +11UTAH 9% → 19%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -6.5
- UTAH 74%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -232
- CHA +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.3 – 120.6 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +47 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +178 Elo | UTAH 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 69.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 118.010th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 120.726th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.7 | Margin | −2.722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 114.616th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 117.226th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.7 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 17–1012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.