Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints35
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Andrew WigginsRebounds7
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints35
- Collin SextonAssists9
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–137
- Q40.0Jazz offensive team rebound140–137
- Q40.0Collin Sexton misses 22-foot step back jumpshot140–137
- Q42.1Gary Payton II enters the game for Stephen Curry140–137
- Q42.1Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Klay Thompson140–137
- Q42.1Jazz Full timeout140–137
- Q42.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2140–137
- Q42.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2139–137
- Q42.1Kris Dunn enters the game for Keyonte George138–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:54Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point shot (Keyonte George assists)GS 137 – 132 UTAH · UTAH 5% → 15% +10UTAH 5% → 15%+10 pts
- Q42:08Collin Sexton makes two point shotGS 137 – 134 UTAH · UTAH 11% → 24% +12UTAH 11% → 24%+12 pts
- Q41:35Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2GS 137 – 135 UTAH · UTAH 20% → 29% +9UTAH 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q41:21Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2GS 138 – 135 UTAH · GS 73% → 82% +9GS 73% → 82%+9 pts
- Q441.1John Collins makes 3-foot dunk (Jordan Clarkson assists)GS 138 – 137 UTAH · UTAH 10% → 34% +24UTAH 10% → 34%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- UTAH 44%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -116
- GS +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 122.8 – 123.9 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | UTAH and GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +33 | +45 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +45 Elo | GS 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 117.711th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 120.425th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −2.723rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 114.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 116.925th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 17–912th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.