LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints26
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints41
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists8
- Draymond GreenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–125
- Q41.0Terance Mann defensive rebound130–125
- Q42.0Brandin Podziemski misses 4-foot tip shot130–125
- Q42.0Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound130–125
- Q44.0Klay Thompson misses 29-foot three point jumper130–125
- Q44.1Warriors Full timeout130–125
- Q44.1James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2130–125
- Q44.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2129–125
- Q44.1Andrew Wiggins personal take foul128–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:03Norman Powell makes 29-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 104 – 106 GS · LAC 23% → 37% +14LAC 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q45:36Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 111 – 108 GS · LAC 48% → 66% +18LAC 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q44:53Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)LAC 111 – 113 GS · GS 45% → 64% +19GS 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q43:22Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 116 – 115 GS · LAC 33% → 56% +23LAC 33% → 56%+23 pts
- Q42:25Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 121 – 115 GS · LAC 75% → 91% +17LAC 75% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 56%
- Fair odds
- GS -123
- LAC +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 118.7 – 120.3 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +35 | LAC: Usual rotation · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +41 Elo | GS 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 119.26th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 117.620th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 115.913th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 114.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.611th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 14–1321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.