Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Kevin DurantAssists7
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Stephen CurryRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–113
- Q40.1Andrew Wiggins personal foul112–113
- Q40.1Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Klay Thompson112–113
- Q40.1Gary Payton II enters the game for Stephen Curry112–113
- Q40.1Suns Full timeout112–113
- Q42.1Stephen Curry makes 33-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)112–113
- Q43.1Klay Thompson enters the game for Jonathan Kuminga112–110
- Q43.1Warriors Full timeout112–110
- Q43.1Stephen Curry defensive rebound112–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:35Devin Booker makes 7-foot pullup jump shotPHX 108 – 108 GS · PHX 28% → 49% +22PHX 28% → 49%+22 pts
- Q41:04Bradley Beal makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 110 – 108 GS · PHX 49% → 75% +26PHX 49% → 75%+26 pts
- Q454.1Stephen Curry makes driving layupPHX 110 – 110 GS · GS 23% → 51% +28GS 23% → 51%+28 pts
- Q435.1Devin Booker makes 18-foot two point shotPHX 112 – 110 GS · PHX 49% → 82% +33PHX 49% → 82%+33 pts
- Q42.1Stephen Curry makes 33-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)PHX 112 – 113 GS · GS <1% → 97% +97GS <1% → 97%+97 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 56%
- Fair odds
- GS -122
- PHX +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 119.9 – 121.4 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +35 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +39 Elo | GS 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 119.26th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 117.921st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 116.013th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 114.819th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 13–1321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 3–0 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.