Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds14
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Grayson AllenAssists14
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–129
- Q415.0Omer Yurtseven out of bounds bad pass turnover115–129
- Q417.1Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound115–129
- Q419.1Omer Yurtseven blocks Theo Maledon 's 4-foot driving floating jump shot115–129
- Q430.1Jason Preston out of bounds bad pass turnover115–129
- Q431.0Jason Preston offensive rebound115–129
- Q436.1Johnny Juzang misses 23-foot three point shot115–129
- Q439.2Omer Yurtseven defensive rebound115–129
- Q441.1Saben Lee misses driving layup115–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q229.1Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point shot (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 66 – 74 PHX · UTAH 23% → 30% +7UTAH 23% → 30%+7 pts
- Q39:27Kris Dunn makes 24-foot three pointerUTAH 75 – 81 PHX · UTAH 26% → 34% +8UTAH 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q38:41Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointer (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 78 – 81 PHX · UTAH 34% → 43% +9UTAH 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q37:29Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)UTAH 78 – 86 PHX · PHX 64% → 73% +9PHX 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q36:39Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)UTAH 78 – 91 PHX · PHX 78% → 85% +7PHX 78% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- UTAH 50%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -114
- PHX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 121.3 – 120.3 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +84 | +12 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +1 Elo | UTAH 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 117.312th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 114.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.8 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 116.49th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 113.615th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.019th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–19 | Road vs home | 15–1117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 0–3 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.