Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints26
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Draymond GreenRebounds10
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–107
- Q418.1Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound129–107
- Q422.0Gui Santos misses 25-foot three point shot129–107
- Q426.0Lester Quinones defensive rebound129–107
- Q428.0Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Omer Yurtseven 's 5-foot layup129–107
- Q436.0Gui Santos makes 22-foot three point jumper129–107
- Q437.0Gui Santos offensive rebound126–107
- Q439.1Moses Moody misses driving layup126–107
- Q454.1Brice Sensabaugh lost ball turnover (Gui Santos steals)126–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:56Jordan Clarkson makes 23-foot three point shot (Collin Sexton assists)GS 45 – 46 UTAH · UTAH 53% → 60% +8UTAH 53% → 60%+8 pts
- Q22:18Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three pointer (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 56 – 50 UTAH · GS 51% → 59% +8GS 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q233.1Collin Sexton makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotGS 58 – 55 UTAH · UTAH 40% → 48% +9UTAH 40% → 48%+9 pts
- Q20.0Draymond Green makes 40-foot three pointerGS 63 – 55 UTAH · GS 58% → 66% +8GS 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q36:34Andrew Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumperGS 75 – 63 UTAH · GS 73% → 80% +8GS 73% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1
- UTAH 54%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -149
- GS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.7 – 124.7 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +68 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +30 Elo | UTAH 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 117.811th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 119.925th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −2.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 114.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 116.525th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 17–78th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.