Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints37
- D'Angelo RussellAssists17
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints18
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–122
- Q46.1shot clock turnover138–122
- Q430.1Lakers defensive team rebound138–122
- Q434.0Kira Lewis Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper138–122
- Q439.1Taylor Hendricks offensive rebound138–122
- Q440.1Omer Yurtseven misses free throw 2 of 2138–122
- Q440.1Omer Yurtseven makes free throw 1 of 2138–122
- Q440.1Christian Wood personal foul138–121
- Q440.1Omer Yurtseven offensive rebound138–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q228.1Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)LAL 70 – 69 UTAH · UTAH 49% → 58% +9UTAH 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q310:05Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 74 – 74 UTAH · LAL 31% → 40% +9LAL 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q37:47Rui Hachimura makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 81 – 80 UTAH · LAL 34% → 44% +9LAL 34% → 44%+9 pts
- Q33:00Anthony Davis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 96 – 88 UTAH · LAL 60% → 70% +10LAL 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q31:53Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point jumperLAL 99 – 92 UTAH · LAL 57% → 68% +11LAL 57% → 68%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -3
- UTAH 62%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -182
- LAL +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 120.3 – 124.9 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | +54 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +84 Elo | UTAH 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 117.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 120.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −2.422nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 114.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.8 | Pace | 102.09th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 17–89th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.