Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Ausar ThompsonPoints19
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- James WisemanRebounds9
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–125
- Q41.1shot clock turnover111–125
- Q425.1Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Shake Milton assists)111–125
- Q433.0Marcus Sasser defensive rebound108–125
- Q436.1Jalen Hood-Schifino misses 12-foot pullup jump shot108–125
- Q452.1James Wiseman makes free throw 2 of 2108–125
- Q452.1James Wiseman makes free throw 1 of 2107–125
- Q452.1Colin Castleton shooting foul106–125
- Q41:09Malachi Flynn defensive rebound106–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:15D'Angelo Russell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)DET 4 – 6 LAL · LAL 73% → 78% +5LAL 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q16:54Ausar Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 9 – 12 LAL · DET 16% → 21% +4DET 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q16:37Austin Reaves makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)DET 9 – 15 LAL · LAL 79% → 84% +4LAL 79% → 84%+4 pts
- Q135.1Troy Brown Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 24 – 32 LAL · DET 10% → 14% +4DET 10% → 14%+4 pts
- Q211:26D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)DET 26 – 37 LAL · LAL 86% → 90% +4LAL 86% → 90%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -8
- LAL 79%
- Fair odds
- LAL -307
- DET +307 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 117.2 – 125.7 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +38 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +227 Elo | LAL 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 75.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.2 | Points scored | 116.613th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.1 | Points allowed | 117.018th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 113.114th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–21 | Road vs home | 18–911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.