Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints17
- Cody MartinAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds7
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints24
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Damian LillardRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game85–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter85–123
- Q43.0shot clock turnover85–123
- Q423.1MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound85–123
- Q426.0JT Thor misses alley oop layup85–123
- Q431.1Bryce McGowens defensive rebound85–123
- Q434.1Chris Livingston misses 26-foot three point jumper85–123
- Q452.1Davis Bertans makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)85–123
- Q41:05Chris Livingston turnover82–123
- Q41:05Chris Livingston offensive foul82–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:12Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 9 – 4 MIL · CHA 32% → 38% +6CHA 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q17:24Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk (Jae Crowder assists)CHA 9 – 6 MIL · MIL 62% → 66% +4MIL 62% → 66%+4 pts
- Q16:47Damian Lillard makes driving layupCHA 9 – 8 MIL · MIL 66% → 70% +4MIL 66% → 70%+4 pts
- Q15:43Damian Lillard makes 30-foot three pointerCHA 11 – 14 MIL · MIL 72% → 77% +5MIL 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q14:52Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three point shot (Damian Lillard assists)CHA 11 – 19 MIL · MIL 80% → 85% +4MIL 80% → 85%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -8
- MIL 79%
- Fair odds
- MIL -270
- CHA +270 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 109.1 – 116.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +8 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | CHA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +227 Elo | MIL 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 121.82nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 118.324th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.0 | Margin | +3.59th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 117.65th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 114.218th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.6 | Pace | 102.95th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–21 | Road vs home | 23–75th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.