Charlotte Hornets at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints19
- Brandon MillerAssists5
- Nick RichardsRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints15
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–97
- Q412.0JT Thor enters the game for Grant Williams84–97
- Q412.0Bryce McGowens enters the game for Miles Bridges84–97
- Q412.0Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Lester Quinones84–97
- Q412.0Lester Quinones ejected84–97
- Q412.0Grant Williams ejected84–97
- Q412.0Grant Williams technical foul84–97
- Q412.0Miles Bridges technical foul84–97
- Q412.0Lester Quinones technical foul84–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:23Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)CHA 7 – 9 GS · GS 71% → 76% +5GS 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q13:50Miles Bridges makes 28-foot three pointer (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 15 – 16 GS · CHA 21% → 26% +5CHA 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q11:54Klay Thompson makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Brandin Podziemski assists)CHA 15 – 19 GS · GS 73% → 79% +5GS 73% → 79%+5 pts
- Q211:35Tre Mann makes 22-foot three point jumper (Seth Curry assists)CHA 18 – 22 GS · CHA 17% → 21% +5CHA 17% → 21%+5 pts
- Q26:13Stephen Curry makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotCHA 20 – 29 GS · GS 82% → 86% +5GS 82% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -10
- GS 83%
- Fair odds
- GS -283
- CHA +283 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 112.5 – 120.4 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | GS and CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | +40 | CHA: Missing Davis Bertans −6 · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +280 Elo | GS 83.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 119.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 118.022nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.4 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 116.48th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.0 | Defense rating | 114.618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 25th of 306–20 | Road vs home | 15–1421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−6 Elo- Davis Bertans injury/illness−6 Elo
Warriors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.