Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints27
- D'Angelo RussellAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints32
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–128
- Q45.0Jalen Hood-Schifino makes 27-foot step back jumpshot (Max Christie assists)110–128
- Q421.0Dario Saric makes 12-foot jumper (Lester Quinones assists)107–128
- Q429.2Warriors offensive team rebound107–126
- Q429.2Moses Moody misses two point shot107–126
- Q444.0Warriors defensive team rebound107–126
- Q447.0Jalen Hood-Schifino misses 26-foot three point jumper107–126
- Q455.0Jalen Hood-Schifino defensive rebound107–126
- Q458.1Dario Saric misses 26-foot three point jumper107–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:53Stephen Curry makes 30-foot three pointerLAL 24 – 24 GS · GS 51% → 57% +7GS 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q210:30Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)LAL 35 – 31 GS · LAL 45% → 53% +7LAL 45% → 53%+7 pts
- Q22:26Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)LAL 51 – 57 GS · GS 64% → 72% +8GS 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q21:58Brandin Podziemski makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)LAL 52 – 60 GS · GS 69% → 76% +7GS 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q21:29Stephen Curry makes 29-foot step back jumpshotLAL 54 – 63 GS · GS 72% → 79% +7GS 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 62%
- Fair odds
- GS -140
- LAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 122.0 – 124.5 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +40 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +86 Elo | GS 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 119.76th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 118.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 116.38th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 114.819th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 14–1421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 GS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.