Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Nick RichardsPoints21
- Cody MartinAssists10
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints26
- Jerami GrantAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–80
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–80
- Q411.1Brandon Miller defensive rebound93–80
- Q413.1Ashton Hagans misses driving layup93–80
- Q419.0shot clock turnover93–80
- Q443.1Dalano Banton makes two point shot93–80
- Q443.1Dalano Banton offensive rebound93–78
- Q445.1Duop Reath misses 25-foot three point jumper93–78
- Q448.0Ashton Hagans offensive rebound93–78
- Q452.0Duop Reath misses 25-foot three point jumper93–78
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:56Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 24 – 18 POR · CHA 53% → 60% +7CHA 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q28:55Tre Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 35 – 24 POR · CHA 66% → 72% +7CHA 66% → 72%+7 pts
- Q410:50Vasilije Micic makes 28-foot three pointerCHA 73 – 63 POR · CHA 76% → 85% +9CHA 76% → 85%+9 pts
- Q48:40Anfernee Simons makes two point shotCHA 73 – 68 POR · POR 21% → 29% +8POR 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q48:18Nick Richards makes dunk (Cody Martin assists)CHA 75 – 68 POR · CHA 72% → 80% +8CHA 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Trail Blazers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- POR 54%
- Fair odds
- POR -121
- CHA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.2 – 109.6 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1379 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −29 | CHA: Missing Davis Bertans −7, Seth Curry −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · POR: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +29 Elo | POR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 107.929th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 116.917th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.4 | Margin | −8.927th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 107.029th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 115.923rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–21 | Road vs home | 9–1825th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−24 Elo- Davis Bertans left knee−7 Elo
- Seth Curry right hip−5 Elo
Trail Blazers
−29 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon right elbow tendinitis−18 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.