Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points34
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints25
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–112
- Q42.0Duop Reath offensive rebound127–110
- Q42.0Toumani Camara misses 14-foot two point shot127–110
- Q42.0Braxton Key defensive rebound127–112
- Q42.0Duop Reath misses free throw 1 of 1127–112
- Q42.0Jalen Pickett shooting foul127–112
- Q42.0Duop Reath makes two point shot127–112
- Q42.1Toumani Camara offensive rebound127–110
- Q42.2Julian Strawther blocks Duop Reath 's 1-foot layup127–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:01Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 3 – 3 POR · DEN 46% → 52% +6DEN 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q16:05Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 16 – 10 POR · DEN 59% → 65% +6DEN 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q14:49Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 19 – 12 POR · DEN 61% → 67% +6DEN 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q27:13Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 37 – 31 POR · DEN 60% → 67% +7DEN 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q24:09Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 49 – 38 POR · DEN 72% → 79% +6DEN 72% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 57%
- Fair odds
- DEN -110
- POR +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 109.1 – 108.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | −27 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −19 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +52 Elo | DEN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 107.929th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 116.717th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −8.827th of 30 |
| 12th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 106.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 115.622nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 99.722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 9–1725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−27 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon right elbow tendinitis−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.