Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints31
- Tyus JonesAssists14
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds12
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points22
- Nikola JokicAssists15
- Nikola JokicRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–130
- Q422.1Justin Champagnie makes two point shot (Eugene Omoruyi assists)110–130
- Q425.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. defensive rebound108–130
- Q429.1Julian Strawther misses 24-foot three point jumper108–130
- Q446.0Eugene Omoruyi makes driving layup108–130
- Q41:00Zeke Nnaji makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot106–130
- Q41:20Justin Champagnie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Johnny Davis assists)106–128
- Q41:29Zeke Nnaji makes two point shot (Jalen Pickett assists)103–128
- Q41:36Jay Huff defensive rebound103–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)WSH 0 – 3 DEN · DEN 74% → 79% +5DEN 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q17:34Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 9 – 13 DEN · WSH 16% → 20% +4WSH 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q15:16Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)WSH 13 – 24 DEN · DEN 85% → 89% +4DEN 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q14:46Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three point shot (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 16 – 24 DEN · WSH 11% → 15% +4WSH 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q28:58Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2WSH 30 – 47 DEN · DEN 91% → 95% +3DEN 91% → 95%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7.5
- DEN 77%
- Fair odds
- DEN -286
- WSH +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.2 – 117.2 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1360 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | +9 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +208 Elo | DEN 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 113.920th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 110.86th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +3.110th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 116.013th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 112.812th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.8 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–22 | Road vs home | 21–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.