Washington Wizards at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints43
- Tyus JonesAssists15
- Deni AvdijaRebounds15
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints36
- Zion WilliamsonAssists8
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–133
- Q41.1Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound126–133
- Q45.1Jordan Poole misses 32-foot three point jumper126–133
- Q47.1Wizards Full timeout126–133
- Q47.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2126–133
- Q47.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2126–132
- Q47.1Jordan Poole personal foul126–131
- Q47.1Trey Murphy III defensive rebound126–131
- Q49.0Trey Murphy III blocks Corey Kispert 's 4-foot layup126–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:19Jordan Poole makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 112 – 113 NO · WSH 19% → 32% +14WSH 19% → 32%+14 pts
- Q45:30Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 115 – 113 NO · WSH 33% → 51% +18WSH 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q45:13Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Brandon Ingram assists)WSH 115 – 115 NO · NO 49% → 61% +12NO 49% → 61%+12 pts
- Q42:50Tyus Jones makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 118 – 121 NO · WSH 7% → 20% +13WSH 7% → 20%+13 pts
- Q41:45Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 121 – 123 NO · WSH 6% → 24% +18WSH 6% → 24%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -11.5
- NO 87%
- Fair odds
- NO -419
- WSH +419 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.4 – 120.3 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | +56 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +325 Elo | NO 86.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 80.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 116.114th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 112.08th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 115.713th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 111.57th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.9 | Pace | 100.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–21 | Road vs home | 15–1017th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.