Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints25
- Tyus JonesAssists16
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds13
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints26
- Luka DoncicAssists15
- Daniel GaffordRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–112
- Q40.1Jaden Hardy defensive rebound104–112
- Q41.1Landry Shamet misses 17-foot two point shot104–112
- Q43.2Landry Shamet enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly104–112
- Q43.2A.J. Lawson enters the game for Luka Doncic104–112
- Q43.2Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Maxi Kleber104–112
- Q43.2Brandon Williams enters the game for Kyrie Irving104–112
- Q43.2Daniel Gafford enters the game for Josh Green104–112
- Q43.2Jaden Hardy enters the game for P.J. Washington104–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:58Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)WSH 95 – 89 DAL · DAL 21% → 33% +12DAL 21% → 33%+12 pts
- Q46:55Jaden Hardy makes 22-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)WSH 95 – 94 DAL · DAL 40% → 57% +16DAL 40% → 57%+16 pts
- Q45:32Maxi Kleber makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)WSH 96 – 97 DAL · DAL 49% → 67% +18DAL 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q44:51Luka Doncic makes 18-foot step back jumpshotWSH 98 – 99 DAL · DAL 54% → 66% +13DAL 54% → 66%+13 pts
- Q44:21Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotWSH 98 – 102 DAL · DAL 66% → 82% +16DAL 66% → 82%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -10
- DAL 84%
- Fair odds
- DAL -374
- WSH +374 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 115.7 – 125.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +44 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +282 Elo | DAL 83.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 78.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 118.87th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 117.921st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.2 | Margin | +0.914th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 116.58th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.3 | Defense rating | 115.622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Pace | 102.08th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–20 | Road vs home | 15–1319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.