Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints30
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints25
- Reggie JacksonAssists9
- Aaron GordonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–98
- Q40.1Kings Full timeout102–98
- Q40.1Kings Full timeout102–98
- Q42.1Malik Monk defensive rebound102–98
- Q45.1Nikola Jokic misses 24-foot three point jumper102–98
- Q47.0Peyton Watson offensive rebound102–98
- Q411.1Nikola Jokic misses 27-foot three point jumper102–98
- Q418.0Christian Braun offensive rebound102–98
- Q419.1Aaron Gordon misses 26-foot three point jumper102–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:47Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)SAC 82 – 85 DEN · DEN 53% → 70% +17DEN 53% → 70%+17 pts
- Q45:29Chris Duarte makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 85 – 85 DEN · SAC 29% → 47% +17SAC 29% → 47%+17 pts
- Q42:38Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 92 – 93 DEN · SAC 17% → 39% +22SAC 17% → 39%+22 pts
- Q42:02De'Aaron Fox makes two point shotSAC 94 – 93 DEN · SAC 38% → 58% +20SAC 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q41:25De'Aaron Fox makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 96 – 93 DEN · SAC 60% → 81% +20SAC 60% → 81%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 61%
- Fair odds
- DEN -148
- SAC +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.7 – 116.6 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | −4 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +76 Elo | DEN 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 114.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 111.07th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 116.39th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 21–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 2–0 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.