Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints40
- Domantas SabonisAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Kevin DurantRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–130
- Q41.1Kevin Durant defensive rebound125–130
- Q41.1De'Aaron Fox misses 25-foot three point jumper125–130
- Q43.0Kings Full timeout125–130
- Q43.0Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2125–130
- Q43.0Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2125–129
- Q43.0Harrison Barnes personal take foul125–128
- Q45.0De'Aaron Fox makes 1-foot two point shot125–128
- Q411.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2123–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:09De'Aaron Fox makes 9-foot running pullup jump shotSAC 118 – 119 PHX · SAC 15% → 36% +21SAC 15% → 36%+21 pts
- Q447.0Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)SAC 118 – 122 PHX · PHX 67% → 95% +28PHX 67% → 95%+28 pts
- Q441.1De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 121 – 122 PHX · SAC 4% → 32% +29SAC 4% → 32%+29 pts
- Q433.1Devin Booker makes 22-foot two point shotSAC 121 – 124 PHX · PHX 69% → 93% +24PHX 69% → 93%+24 pts
- Q424.1Domantas Sabonis makes driving layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 123 – 124 PHX · SAC 4% → 28% +24SAC 4% → 28%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Fair odds
- PHX -130
- SAC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 118.3 – 120.3 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +27 | SAC: Missing Trey Lyles −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +103 Elo | PHX 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 56.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 117.412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 114.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +3.011th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 116.48th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.217th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 16–1117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+16 Elo- Trey Lyles illness−3 Elo
Suns
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 2–1 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.