LA Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints32
- James HardenAssists10
- Daniel TheisRebounds13
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints27
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–88
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–88
- Q43.0Anthony Edwards makes driving dunk (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)89–88
- Q413.0Terance Mann enters the game for Norman Powell89–86
- Q413.0Amir Coffey enters the game for Daniel Theis89–86
- Q413.0Kyle Anderson enters the game for Jaden McDaniels89–86
- Q413.0Timberwolves Full timeout89–86
- Q413.0Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 289–86
- Q413.0Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Kyle Anderson88–86
- Q413.0Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 288–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.1Norman Powell makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 67 – 68 MIN · LAC 23% → 41% +18LAC 23% → 41%+18 pts
- Q44:45Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 82 – 78 MIN · LAC 53% → 72% +19LAC 53% → 72%+19 pts
- Q42:16Jaden McDaniels makes dunk (Rudy Gobert assists)LAC 84 – 84 MIN · MIN 34% → 52% +19MIN 34% → 52%+19 pts
- Q42:01Kawhi Leonard makes 2-foot layup (James Harden assists)LAC 86 – 84 MIN · LAC 48% → 68% +20LAC 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q41:40Karl-Anthony Towns makes 2-foot driving dunk (Mike Conley assists)LAC 87 – 86 MIN · MIN 21% → 41% +19MIN 21% → 41%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 64%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- LAC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 109.4 – 112.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +30 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +103 Elo | MIN 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 113.719th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 106.61st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +7.13rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 113.817th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 106.71st of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.8 | Pace | 99.325th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 22–75th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.