Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points33
- Jordan GoodwinAssists8
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds13
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints34
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–110
- Q411.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound101–110
- Q414.1Santi Aldama misses 25-foot three point jumper101–110
- Q418.0Grizzlies Full timeout101–110
- Q424.1Ziaire Williams defensive rebound101–110
- Q427.1Anthony Edwards misses 24-foot three point jumper101–110
- Q437.0Mike Conley defensive rebound101–110
- Q440.1Jaden McDaniels blocks Vince Williams Jr. 's 1-foot two point shot101–110
- Q446.05 second violation101–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:28Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot step back jumpshotMEM 81 – 72 MIN · MEM 58% → 68% +10MEM 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q32:18Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMEM 81 – 77 MIN · MIN 37% → 48% +11MIN 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q410:10Monte Morris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MEM 87 – 91 MIN · MIN 66% → 77% +11MIN 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q45:18Santi Aldama makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Ziaire Williams assists)MEM 98 – 100 MIN · MEM 20% → 30% +10MEM 20% → 30%+10 pts
- Q45:02Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes driving layup (Monte Morris assists)MEM 98 – 102 MIN · MIN 70% → 80% +10MIN 70% → 80%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10
- MIN 83%
- Fair odds
- MIN -277
- MEM +277 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 100.2 – 108.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1626 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | +56 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +282 Elo | MIN 83.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 113.620th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 106.41st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 106.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.3 | Pace | 99.425th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 21–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–3 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.