Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Dennis SchroderPoints18
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Dorian Finney-SmithRebounds9
Grizzlies- Lamar StevensPoints17
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists5
- Lamar StevensRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–86
- Q414.1shot clock turnover111–86
- Q438.1Yuta Watanabe makes dunk111–86
- Q442.2Yuta Watanabe defensive rebound111–84
- Q445.1Keita Bates-Diop misses 23-foot three point jumper111–84
- Q454.1Lamar Stevens steps out of bounds turnover111–84
- Q454.1Lamar Stevens offensive rebound111–84
- Q456.1GG Jackson misses 27-foot three point jumper111–84
- Q41:09GG Jackson defensive rebound111–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:51Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 14 – 5 MEM · BKN 54% → 60% +7BKN 54% → 60%+7 pts
- Q13:34Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick Rose assists)BKN 16 – 9 MEM · MEM 37% → 43% +7MEM 37% → 43%+7 pts
- Q13:11Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 19 – 9 MEM · BKN 57% → 63% +7BKN 57% → 63%+7 pts
- Q12:57Jake LaRavia makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)BKN 19 – 12 MEM · MEM 36% → 43% +7MEM 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q29:05Dennis Schroder makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)BKN 40 – 27 MEM · BKN 66% → 73% +7BKN 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 59%
- Fair odds
- MEM -151
- BKN +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.6 – 108.7 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | −14 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +62 Elo | MEM 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.5 | Points scored | 106.930th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 112.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.0 | Margin | −5.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 106.030th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 111.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.7 | Pace | 100.517th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–17 | Road vs home | 7–2127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.