Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints21
- Cam ThomasAssists4
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points25
- RJ BarrettAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–121
- Q41.1Chris Boucher defensive rebound93–121
- Q41.1Lonnie Walker IV misses 25-foot step back jumpshot93–121
- Q412.1shot clock turnover93–121
- Q435.0Day'Ron Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 293–121
- Q435.0Nets offensive team rebound92–121
- Q435.0Day'Ron Sharpe misses free throw 1 of 292–121
- Q435.0D.J. Carton personal foul92–121
- Q448.1Jordan Nwora makes free throw 2 of 292–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:49Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three pointer (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 41 – 44 TOR · BKN 35% → 43% +8BKN 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q23:49RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)BKN 41 – 49 TOR · TOR 62% → 70% +8TOR 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q23:31Lonnie Walker IV makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 44 – 49 TOR · BKN 30% → 38% +8BKN 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q39:37Cam Thomas makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 60 – 61 TOR · BKN 39% → 48% +9BKN 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q38:08Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)BKN 60 – 67 TOR · TOR 62% → 70% +9TOR 62% → 70%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1.5
- BKN 57%
- Fair odds
- BKN -106
- TOR +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 115.2 – 114.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −36 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +46 Elo | BKN 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.4 | Points scored | 113.920th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 117.820th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.3 | Margin | −3.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 116.224th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–720th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–15 | Road vs home | 11–1624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.