Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints41
- Jrue HolidayAssists12
- Jayson TatumRebounds14
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints27
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–110
- Q415.1shot clock turnover118–110
- Q439.1Mikal Bridges makes driving layup118–110
- Q446.1Derrick White makes 1-foot driving dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)118–108
- Q455.1Jayson Tatum defensive rebound116–108
- Q458.0Dennis Schroder misses 25-foot three point jumper116–108
- Q41:06Nets Full timeout116–108
- Q41:06Jayson Tatum personal foul116–108
- Q41:23Nic Claxton defensive rebound116–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:11Lonnie Walker IV makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 23 – 23 BKN · BKN 30% → 36% +6BKN 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q12:50Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 26 – 23 BKN · BOS 64% → 70% +6BOS 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q27:14Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 48 – 43 BKN · BOS 67% → 74% +7BOS 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q36:31Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 84 – 66 BKN · BOS 89% → 96% +7BOS 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q47:36Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 102 – 93 BKN · BOS 83% → 91% +8BOS 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 71%
- Fair odds
- BOS -189
- BKN +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.5 – 111.7 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +9 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +154 Elo | BOS 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 113.919th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 115.216th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+9.4 | Margin | −1.321st of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 114.819th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.822nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–9 | Road vs home | 13–1623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.