San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints21
- Devin VassellAssists4
- Dominick BarlowRebounds9
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints25
- Dennis SchroderAssists12
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–123
- Q417.0Julian Champagnie makes 4-foot two point shot (Malaki Branham assists)103–123
- Q424.2Dominick Barlow defensive rebound101–123
- Q428.1Dennis Schroder misses 7-foot two point shot101–123
- Q443.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 7-foot two point shot101–123
- Q453.1Trendon Watford makes free throw 2 of 299–123
- Q453.1Trendon Watford makes free throw 1 of 299–122
- Q453.1Blake Wesley shooting foul99–121
- Q41:03Dominick Barlow makes free throw 2 of 299–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:36Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three pointer (Ben Simmons assists)SA 32 – 36 BKN · BKN 63% → 69% +7BKN 63% → 69%+7 pts
- Q210:25Keldon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)SA 35 – 38 BKN · SA 27% → 33% +6SA 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q38:57Victor Wembanyama makes 31-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 60 – 67 BKN · SA 16% → 23% +6SA 16% → 23%+6 pts
- Q38:30Victor Wembanyama makes 24-foot three pointer (Jeremy Sochan assists)SA 63 – 69 BKN · SA 18% → 25% +7SA 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q38:15Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)SA 63 – 72 BKN · BKN 75% → 82% +7BKN 75% → 82%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -4.5
- BKN 68%
- Fair odds
- BKN -163
- SA +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.4 – 117.1 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1353 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −4 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +133 Elo | BKN 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 113.820th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 115.416th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.7 | Margin | −1.721st of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 113.318th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 114.920th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.3 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 12–1624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.