San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- Tre JonesAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints18
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–99
- Q43.1shot clock turnover122–99
- Q427.1Mouhamadou Gueye makes layup (Jordan Nwora assists)122–99
- Q435.1Jalen McDaniels defensive rebound122–97
- Q435.1Mouhamadou Gueye blocks Blake Wesley 's 1-foot driving layup122–97
- Q450.1Devonte' Graham defensive rebound122–97
- Q451.0Mouhamadou Gueye misses tip shot122–97
- Q451.0Mouhamadou Gueye offensive rebound122–97
- Q455.0Jordan Nwora misses driving layup122–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:27Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)SA 28 – 26 TOR · TOR 46% → 53% +7TOR 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q140.0Cedi Osman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 33 – 28 TOR · SA 47% → 54% +7SA 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q210:56Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)SA 39 – 30 TOR · SA 57% → 64% +7SA 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q310:11Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)SA 67 – 57 TOR · TOR 20% → 27% +7TOR 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q39:56Devin Vassell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 70 – 57 TOR · SA 73% → 80% +7SA 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3.5
- TOR 63%
- Fair odds
- TOR -144
- SA +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 116.5 – 119.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −29 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +94 Elo | TOR 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 113.919th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 117.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −3.624th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 112.720th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 116.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.1 | Pace | 100.217th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 11–1424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.