Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds11
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints29
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–125
- Q40.1Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound127–125
- Q40.1RJ Barrett misses 8-foot two point shot127–125
- Q49.1Raptors Full timeout127–125
- Q49.1RJ Barrett defensive rebound127–125
- Q49.1Isaiah Jackson misses free throw 2 of 2127–125
- Q49.1Isaiah Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2127–125
- Q49.1Jakob Poeltl personal foul126–125
- Q414.1Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 2 of 2126–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:29Ben Sheppard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 114 – 115 TOR · IND 33% → 50% +16IND 33% → 50%+16 pts
- Q45:07Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three pointer (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 118 – 117 TOR · IND 42% → 61% +19IND 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q43:59Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 121 – 119 TOR · IND 47% → 68% +21IND 47% → 68%+21 pts
- Q41:00Scottie Barnes makes 22-foot pullup jump shotIND 124 – 123 TOR · TOR 13% → 34% +21TOR 13% → 34%+21 pts
- Q425.1Pascal Siakam makes 11-foot two point shotIND 126 – 123 TOR · IND 72% → 96% +23IND 72% → 96%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 69%
- Fair odds
- IND -177
- TOR +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 123.3 – 118.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | −43 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +137 Elo | IND 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.4 | Points scored | 113.721st of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 117.620th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −3.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 116.123rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.3 | Pace | 100.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 11–1524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.