Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Trendon WatfordPoints15
- Dennis Smith Jr.Assists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints28
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Luke KornetRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–136
- Q40.1shot clock turnover86–136
- Q422.1Payton Pritchard defensive rebound86–136
- Q425.1Keon Johnson misses 18-foot pullup jump shot86–136
- Q430.1shot clock turnover86–136
- Q454.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 286–136
- Q454.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 285–136
- Q454.1Oshae Brissett shooting foul84–136
- Q41:00Neemias Queta makes dunk (Payton Pritchard assists)84–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:25Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)BKN 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 78% → 82% +4BOS 78% → 82%+4 pts
- Q110:35Derrick White makes 11-foot two point shotBKN 0 – 7 BOS · BOS 84% → 87% +2BOS 84% → 87%+2 pts
- Q19:44Dennis Schroder makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 2 – 7 BOS · BKN 13% → 16% +2BKN 13% → 16%+2 pts
- Q19:24Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BKN 2 – 10 BOS · BOS 84% → 88% +4BOS 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q19:06Dennis Schroder makes 4-foot two point shot (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 4 – 10 BOS · BKN 12% → 14% +2BKN 12% → 14%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -9.5
- BOS 82%
- Fair odds
- BOS -348
- BKN +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 109.3 – 118.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1646 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | BOS and BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | +50 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +262 Elo | BOS 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 120.45th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 111.07th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.4 | Margin | +9.41st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 119.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 109.93rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.7 | Pace | 100.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–14 | Road vs home | 25–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–3 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.