Brooklyn Nets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints18
- Mikal BridgesAssists8
- Dorian Finney-SmithRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints29
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists4
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–101
- Q413.0Josh Minott defensive rebound86–101
- Q414.1Mikal Bridges misses 23-foot pullup jump shot86–101
- Q422.1Jalen Wilson enters the game for Dennis Schroder86–101
- Q422.1Luka Garza enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker86–101
- Q422.1Justin Jackson enters the game for Mike Conley86–101
- Q422.1Monte Morris enters the game for Anthony Edwards86–101
- Q422.1Josh Minott enters the game for Jaden McDaniels86–101
- Q422.1Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Kyle Anderson86–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:07Monte Morris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)BKN 61 – 65 MIN · MIN 65% → 75% +10MIN 65% → 75%+10 pts
- Q31:33Cameron Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)BKN 64 – 65 MIN · BKN 25% → 35% +10BKN 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q48:39Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)BKN 72 – 75 MIN · MIN 59% → 73% +13MIN 59% → 73%+13 pts
- Q47:59Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)BKN 74 – 78 MIN · MIN 64% → 77% +13MIN 64% → 77%+13 pts
- Q45:55Anthony Edwards makes 22-foot step back jumpshotBKN 78 – 82 MIN · MIN 69% → 78% +10MIN 69% → 78%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8
- MIN 79%
- Fair odds
- MIN -244
- BKN +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.4 – 112.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1619 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | +26 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +231 Elo | MIN 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.0 | Points scored | 113.820th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 106.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.7 | Margin | +7.03rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 114.117th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 107.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–16 | Road vs home | 19–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.