LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints24
- James HardenAssists8
- Terance MannRebounds12
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points29
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists8
- Lamar StevensRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–95
- Q47.0Clippers defensive team rebound101–95
- Q47.0Luke Kennard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot101–95
- Q49.1Grizzlies Full timeout101–95
- Q49.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 2101–95
- Q49.1Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2100–95
- Q49.1Ziaire Williams personal take foul99–95
- Q411.1Vince Williams Jr. personal take foul99–95
- Q421.1Terance Mann offensive rebound99–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:03Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 92 – 91 MEM · LAC 36% → 61% +24LAC 36% → 61%+24 pts
- Q42:12Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layup (Vince Williams Jr. assists)LAC 92 – 93 MEM · MEM 38% → 57% +19MEM 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q41:35Kawhi Leonard makes dunkLAC 94 – 93 MEM · LAC 41% → 63% +23LAC 41% → 63%+23 pts
- Q41:11Terance Mann makes dunkLAC 96 – 93 MEM · LAC 65% → 85% +20LAC 65% → 85%+20 pts
- Q446.0James Harden makes 27-foot step back jumpshotLAC 99 – 95 MEM · LAC 67% → 95% +28LAC 67% → 95%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5
- LAC 68%
- Fair odds
- LAC -151
- MEM +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.0 – 109.9 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +45 | −15 | LAC: Missing Norman Powell −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +133 Elo | LAC 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 107.130th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 113.09th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.1 | Margin | −5.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 106.130th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 112.010th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 7–2027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+45 Elo- Norman Powell right ankle sprain−6 Elo
Grizzlies
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.