LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints20
- Paul GeorgeAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–129
- Q40.0(00:00) [Clippers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)107–129
- Q419.1Olivier Sarr defensive rebound107–129
- Q423.1Norman Powell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–129
- Q432.1Cason Wallace makes dunk107–129
- Q435.1Brandon Boston Jr. lost ball turnover (Cason Wallace steals)107–127
- Q443.1Cason Wallace makes layup107–127
- Q444.1Cason Wallace offensive rebound107–125
- Q447.2Kenrich Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper107–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:56Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAC 55 – 57 OKC · OKC 46% → 54% +8OKC 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q310:13Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)LAC 63 – 66 OKC · OKC 49% → 58% +9OKC 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q38:46Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 70 – 70 OKC · LAC 42% → 51% +9LAC 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q37:37Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAC 70 – 74 OKC · OKC 52% → 61% +10OKC 52% → 61%+10 pts
- Q36:29Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot step back jumpshotLAC 74 – 79 OKC · OKC 55% → 65% +10OKC 55% → 65%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 56%
- Fair odds
- LAC -109
- OKC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 118.6 – 117.9 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +65 | +10 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +45 Elo | LAC 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 120.84th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 113.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 118.24th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 111.26th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 5th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 21–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–1 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.