San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints21
- Devin VassellAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints34
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–114
- Q47.1Josh Minott defensive rebound105–114
- Q410.1Keldon Johnson misses 26-foot three point jumper105–114
- Q419.1Monte Morris makes free throw 2 of 2105–114
- Q419.1Justin Jackson enters the game for Anthony Edwards105–113
- Q419.1Josh Minott enters the game for Rudy Gobert105–113
- Q419.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound105–113
- Q419.1Monte Morris misses free throw 1 of 2105–113
- Q419.1Devin Vassell personal take foul105–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:54Devin Vassell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 10 – 5 MIN · SA 24% → 29% +5SA 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q17:39Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)SA 10 – 8 MIN · MIN 70% → 76% +5MIN 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q16:47Victor Wembanyama makes 24-foot step back jumpshotSA 13 – 10 MIN · SA 21% → 26% +5SA 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q15:01Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointer (Kyle Anderson assists)SA 13 – 13 MIN · MIN 73% → 78% +5MIN 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q12:19Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)SA 18 – 20 MIN · MIN 76% → 81% +5MIN 76% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -12
- MIN 88%
- Fair odds
- MIN -405
- SA +405 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 105.2 – 115.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +14 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +343 Elo | MIN 87.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 80.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.1 | Points scored | 113.620th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 106.41st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +7.23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 113.817th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 106.61st of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.4 | Pace | 99.325th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–26 | Road vs home | 20–64th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.